Technical and sentiment indicators just turned bullish. Are you surprised? You’re not the only one.
Last week, I wrote about the wall of worry, which was very high. Traders were feeling bearish, even though it appeared price action was ready to turn bullish. In essence, they could not see the forest through the trees. Anyone who stuck with a bearish posture got drilled.
A wall of worry often appears just before the markets turn higher. During my years of trading, I have learned that the markets make people look and feel foolish. If they didn’t, we would all be rich and without a care in the world.
These are the technical and sentiment indicators that just turned bullish
Both the technical picture and sentiment indicators have turned bullish. Just a couple of weeks ago, traders couldn’t get rid of their stocks fast enough. Today, they can’t get enough.
The fear/greed index is flashing a greed sign; it has been trending in that direction for quite some time. The investor’s intelligence polls have done an about face from two weeks ago and are now solidly bullish.
Breadth is also bullish. As my friend Tom McClellan likes to say, “Gobs of breadth are a good thing for the bulls.” New highs have crushed new lows consistently over the past two weeks. We closely follow this indicator at extremes (when indices hit new 52-week highs or lows). Last fall, this indicator failed, and as a result, it took down the markets into the end of the year.
Finally: price action. This indicator appeared to be skeptical of the constant rallies. Prices were hovering near the top of a range and bumping up against resistance from previous all-time highs. Finally on Friday, the SPX 500 and Nasdaq both enjoyed the highest weekly close … ever.
As earnings season continues, we’ll see how much bullishness remains. Markets are still susceptible to tweets and news, but there might be a bit of upside left. With positive seasonal trends, there is wind in the bull’s sails.
