The Fuse
Stock futures are higher this morning in a continuation from Friday’s sparkling rally. We are seeing some good earnings this season and with another big week of releases could this be the week markets make a run to get above resistance?
Interest Rates are rising a bit this morning as is volatility, but it is a mixed picture. Short term interest rates remain elevated.
Oil prices are up sharply in front of an OPEC meeting this week. Gold is well bid this morning as the dollar is weaker.
Some good earnings from biotech AXSM while solid earnings by Six Flags, but a poor report by Tyson has this company down 10% early.
Solid jobs report Friday vaulted the markets higher with very good statistics. Yet, we still see the markets in a tight range, a box between 3800 and 4200 on the SPX 500.
Very strong breadth puts this indicator back on a buy signal. Several days of solid breadth are good signs for the market going forward.
Decent volume on Friday as volume trends have started to turn bullish.
The indices remain stuck in a range. The Nasdaq is still flirting with 13K, the SPX 500 is trying to get over the hump at 4,200 but just can’t seem to get there. The weekly chart is much more constructive now with higher lows in place.
The Internals
What’s it mean?
A very strong up day with good volume and breadth. The VOLD was up all day long and the ADD hit some new relative highs. Notice the trend day in ADSPD, as VIX plunged from overnight. Regardless of the jobs data the market was well bid all session long. A down week, but a nice save on Friday.
The Dynamite
Economic Data:
- Monday: Wholesale inventories
- Tuesday: Small Biz Optimism Index
- Wednesday: Mortgage Apps, CPI, Crude oil inventories
- Thursday: PPI, jobless claims
- Friday: Michigan sentiment, import/export prices
Earnings this week:
- Monday: KKR, TSN, IPAR, SWKS, IFF, PYPL, TREX
- Tuesday: YOU, COTY, EVGO, AFRM, ABNB, AKAM, AXON, BLNK, EA, TOST
- Wednesday: RBLX, WEN, ALRM, CAKE HOOD, TTD, DIS
- Thursday: CYBR, DDS, TPR, UTZ,, INDI, SANM
- Friday: SPB
Fed Watch:
After last week’s meeting and a quarter point rate hike, we will see if the Fed speakers tone it down. The key they will be looking for is a reduction in PPI. Cleveland nowcasting has CPI climbing to 7.2% on their estimate for April. The wages number last week was much too hot, and while Chair Powell seemed sanguine on more rate hikes, he was adamant about no rate cuts, too!
Issues/Stocks to Watch this week
Volatility – The VIX was smashed down again Friday, far too low for comfort. We’ll see if it rises this coming week.
OPEC meeting – The last time they met it was a cut in production. We’ll see if that happens again, which might be a surprise.
Banks and Congress – Lawmakers say they are monitoring the situation with regional banks and their problems. Let’s hope they don’t step in and try to fix markets as they did once before – that was a disaster.
