For the last several years, bonds have been a great choice – in 2013 they were solid but could not beat stocks, and in 2014 the race is on once again. Many have been pointing to enormous over-valuation of debt, huge supply and the problems beset by the Fed and their QE ambitions. But we just look to the charts and technicals to give us the best clues to how a stock or index will move and when. The TLT is a great proxy for longer duration paper and may be signaling a pause, if not an outright decline. The channel is defined and price has bounced off the bottom band, but it apppears that short rally is over. See the chart below for more details, but I believe a bearish move on bonds is coming soon.
