The Fuse
What are futures doing?
Stocks are looking to rebound from a modest pullback yesterday, futures are rallying but there is some data still to work through. Earnings are looking good with Intel leading the way last night and PG posting strong numbers today.
News
A down session in Europe with STOXX lower by .5%, led by sharper losses in France. The FTSE was off the same .5%, gold is flat, silver up .5% while crude is backing off slightly. The US dollar index was flat. Yields in Germany rose 2bps, the US 10 yr treasury yield off 1bp, slight gains for bonds while Japan rose 1%, Hong Kong and Shanghai with very modest gains.
Volatility
The VIX rose up yesterday on more macro news and uncertainty over the Iran War, the same as we have become used to lately. But better heads prevailed and the dip buyers took advantage, narrowing the loss and driving the VIX down below 20%. The 18 level remains stubborn but we’ll see if it gets attacked today.
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Interest Rates
Rates are steady this morning, not too surprising with earnings the main focus. So far so good on that front with strong numbers from Intel, PG and others. 2/10 spread is coming down again in a risk off fashion, 5 yr yields are making a move on 4% while the 30 yr is steady and just under 5%. High yield remains in demand, fed futures seeing a chance at a cut in October but no sooner.
Earnings
Blowout earnings from Intel is lifting the stock market and semiconductor group significantly this morning. We’ll see how far it goes but this was very impressive. PG also posted robust gains this morning, HCA missed the mark. Last night Newmont reported as strong quarter, expected with the strength in gold.
Events
Once again the stock market is taken hostage by the macro headlines. News that had been driving the markets up can also take it down, as we saw intraday with a dramatic 100 point drop in the SPX 500, only to reverse hard as the dip buyers attempted to add to positions. That may have worked though, as the lowest levels of the day were prior launch points (on the hourly chart). Fridays have been generally strong for markets in 2026, so we’ll see what is in store.
Breadth
Again, breadth was unimpressive and was weak from the start. Buyers just not interested in stepping up UNLESS there was a huge sell down, like we had yesterday. The A/D line was slightly negative, the oscillators slipped but new highs still outpacing new lows by a healthy clip.
Volume
We cautioned yesterday that new highs with low turnover could be problematic, and it was yesterday. No doubt the bulls remain in charge but the slippery slope gets harder to climb with each passing day. Volume levels rose up so there is a distribution day printed. We have not had one of these for awhile, so no harm done unless they start to cluster.
Support Levels
That was quite the tail left on the SPX 500 and Nasdaq yesterday, we’ll see if it acts as support (as they usually do). If not, look for the gap just below to fill, that would be around $701, just missed it midday on Thursday. Support still is lower, but as mentioned prior the indices might just be churning a bit, letting the moving averages catch up.
The Internals
What’s it mean?
The internals were pretty poor yesterday, the ticks at one point in a big negative mood. VOLD and ADD headed down from the start and never recovered, while the VIX spiked hard above 20 but managed to close under that level. Put/calls are on the rise but not yet on sell signals. Today could be a recovery day, depends on if anyone wants to be long into the weekend or not.
The Dynamite
Economic Data:
- Friday: Consumer sentiment
Earnings this week:
- Friday: PG, CHTR, MOG.A, SLB, RPT, HCA, SXT, GNTX
Fed Watch:
Not much on the docket this week as the committee prepares for the late April meeting. This will likely be the last one as Chair for Jay Powell. The FOMC is unlikely to move rates at this meeting nor at any meeting in 2026.
Stocks to Watch
Intel – The big semiconductor company that was left on death’s doorstep has staged a remarkable comeback. Earnings out this week, we’ll see if they can finally deliver a strong quarter.
Oil/gas – Crude oil was smashed this week when it was learned the Strait of Hormuz would be opened. If it stays that way crude could fall to $75 or so and bounce.
Tesla – The first of the Mag 7 reports this week and it had a solid bounce to the 200 ma. It may pull back after earnings regardless of the number, but above $400 would be a good start to get long.
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