The Fuse
Equity futures popped higher on the in line jobs report. But the devil is in the details, this represents a rather hot number that the Fed is not likely to budge from their hawkish stance.
With markets closed today we’ll be watching equity futures, which trade until noon EST. It’s not often a big news event is scheduled when the markets are closed, but this is the one day.
It’s all about the jobs report today. 236K jobs were created, mostly in line with estimates. The Unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, wages were up month over month and the participation rate increased. This will keep the Fed hawkish.
No earnings today of significance but we’ll be looking for the kickoff of Q1 earnings season this next week.
We have the jobs report coming out on Friday, but of course the markets are closed that day in observance of Good Friday. We’ll have a slew of other economic data coming next week.
Markets managed to scrape back some of Wednesday’s losses in a rather subdued session. The lows were put in early as the bulls managed to eke out a win, but about flat for the week.
Volume was lower yesterday but price action was good, an outside day on the candlesticks.
4100 held firm this week. We talked about 4090 being the next level of interest, we closed right near it yesterday. Below there we have 4050 and then 3970 as well.
The Internals
What’s it mean?
Very little to say about the internals, they were mostly mixed but the VIX did fall sharply all session long, and finished well below 19%. That’s a red flag, but if it does move under 17% that’ll set up a new leg higher for the markets. ADD and VOLD with negligible moves yesterdy.
The Dynamite
Economic Data:
- Friday: NFP report, consumer credit
Earnings this week:
- Friday: Markets are closed.
Fed Watch: Loretta Mester from Cleveland made it very clear the committee does NOT see rate cuts coming in 2023, and that the market likely has it all wrong.
Stocks to Watch
Jobs Report – Some cracks are appearing in the jobs data, we’ll see more about it on Friday.
Gold – nearing all time highs, silver has been strong as well.
Volatility – This has been crushed lately, probably too low and we could see a rebound soon.