The Fuse
Futures are up smartly this morning before the jobs report hits. Volatility futures are down, which is stoking an early rally, perhaps off the market rout the last couple of sessions. There is a firm bid today, so whatever the jobs number may be there seems to be plenty of stock to buy.
Interest Rates are rising this morning as risk appetite takes hold. Rates fell sharply this week as worries about the banking crisis continue on, but with so much speculation about who the next bank is to get hit, better to be safe. But if there is some resolution, investors will breathe a sigh of relief.
Job growth is expected to slow down some with today’s NFP report. Wages are still sticky and are likely to stay at 4.2% annualized. The pre-job data indicated a mixed report is due out.
Strong earnings from Apple last night are stoking a rally in technology stocks.
Today’s non-farm payroll will play a big role in how the market decides to finish the week.
Another day of horrendous breadth tells us there is likely some more downside, though we are getting very close to oversold.
Volume trends remain bearish, heavy turnover all day long in technology, banking and interest rate related names.
We now have 4100 as strong resistance for the SPX 500. As mentioned yesterday, a bearish eveningstar has appeared, and that means more downside action into next week.
The Internals
What’s it mean?
Just another awful day for the bulls as any rally was thwarted all session long. The VOLD continued the downside pressure from Wednesday’s late session slide. Put/calls rose up as did the VIX, which seems destined to challenge the 200 ma around 23 and change.
The Dynamite
Economic Data:
- Friday: NFP labor report, consumer credit.
Earnings this week:
- Friday: AMC, CBOE, CHNI, ROAD, WBD
Fed Watch:
Issues and Stocks to Watch this week:
Apple – Releases earnings on Thursday evening, it may trigger some big market movements.
First of the month – money flows are often strong to start the month.
The Fed meeting – Plenty of hot inflation data, too much for the committee at this point, looking for another hike or two to come.
