The Fuse
Equity futures are mixed this morning as a slew of data will be distributed. First up is the all important CPI for March, expected to rise .3% over last month.
Stocks remain stuck but breadth continues to lead the way, this has the oscillator nearly overbought once again.
CPI comes out at 830am today while we will have the FOMC meeting minutes later in the day. Nothing notable overnight to push markets in either direction.
Nothing notable on the earnings front this morning.
This week starts off earning season, but we’ll be watching inflation data carefully along with the release of last month’s FOMC meeting minutes.
More good breadth today solidifies the breadth signals as bullish.
Just when we thought volume was starting to expand, it stalled out yesterday.
We continue to see 4100 on the SPX 500 as good support once again, below there is 4090 and 4050 then 4000. For the Nasdaq, it’s 13K of course, with some levels below there if that falls (12500 and then 12K). The 20 ma is catching up fast to this index,, we’ll see if it becomes support.
The Internals
What’s it mean?
Pretty good energy most of the day, we saw breadth finish quite strong. Notice the VOLD, which ended at the highs of the session. Put/calls dropped sharply while the VIX, down most of the day ended in the green. Too much complacency with big data news coming this week.
The Dynamite
Economic Data:
- Wednesday: CPI, FOMC minutes, Atlant Fed Biz Inflation expectations
- Thursday: PPI, jobless claims
- Friday: Retail sales, industrial production, biz inventories, consumer sentiment
Earnings this week:
- Wednesday: RENT, LVMH
- Thursday: DAL, FAST, INFS
- Friday: JPM, UNH, PNC, C, WFC, BLK
Fed Watch: Austan Goolsbee may have tipped his hand to being a bit sanguine on inflation. Tom Barkin is up Wednesday, Mary Daly (SF Fed) later in the week. We don’t expect fireworks from these speakers though a response to last week’s job data is likely.
Issues/Stocks to Watch this week
Banks – JPM, C, WFC, BLK kick off the ‘real’ start of earnings.
Gold, Silver – After a strong couple weeks, seeing if key levels of support hold.
Inflation data – With CPI, PPI out midweek, will these start to materially turn down or force the Fed to hike more.