The Fuse
Futures are down rather sharply today after the release of mostly in line retail sales. Some good things were in the report but mostly this points toward slowing consumer spending, something not heard recently by the data (Mastercard spending pulse) and other sources.
The SPX 500 is knocking on the door once again of 4200, and that level is going to be tough to crack. The oscillators are not completely overbought now but are close to it. Nasdaq holding above 13K at end of week would be a big win for the bulls.
PPI was released yesterday morning and printed a low to in line report. That is good news on the inflation front, but nothing here suggest the Fed is done raising interest rates.
Robust earnings from JPM, WFC, C early this morning are leading the way after a sharp decline in this group over the past month.
These meeting minutes Wednesday told us the Fed expects to see a mild recession, but perhaps 2024 they are a bit more optimistic and could start cutting rates.
Breadth was very strong yesterday as these indicators are now back on buy signals. There is something to be said about strong breadth and that means issues are rising, and when you have good turnover it is a bullish combination.
Some good turnover yesterday snuffed out Wednesday’s distribution. With the bulls regaining control, it means we look towards the 4200 level as next resistance.
Not much to say other than a very solid market day Thursday. Across the board stocks managed to push through resistance with ease, a very widespread rally on good turnover.
The Internals
What’s it mean?
Stunningly good day for the bulls as VIX was smashed, closing well under 18%. The VOLD you see (top left corner) was straight up all session long, while we should point out the TICK/Q and TICK were also very strong and bullish.
The Dynamite
Economic Data:
- Friday: Retail sales, industrial production, biz inventories, consumer sentiment
Earnings this week:
- Friday: JPM, UNH, PNC, C, WFC, BLK
Fed Watch: Austan Goolsbee may have tipped his hand to being a bit sanguine on inflation. Tom Barkin did not say much about the economy. We don’t expect fireworks from these speakers though a response to last week’s job data is likely.
Issues/Stocks to Watch this week
Banks – JPM, C, WFC, BLK kick off the ‘real’ start of earnings today.
Gold, Silver – After a strong couple weeks, seeing if key levels of support hold.
Inflation data – PPI was out yesterday and showed lower inflation, it could be the start.