The Fuse
Futures are higher this morning after a strong pop overseas pushed the ES (SPX futures higher by .25%). Interest rates are lower as well, bond investors coming into fixed income ahead of critical economic data this week. I’ll be watching the 4100 level again closely, as we had two consecutive closes under that mark. After reaching a moderately oversold level early Friday we saw stocks bounce back, perhaps some squaring of positions. It was another day of chop as the markets await news about inflation data and retail sales, and how that might effect fed policy.
Earnings are picking up speed again (see below), but by and large we have not seen a great earnings season with more than 85% of companies warning about the future. Volume trends are weak but high yield picked up the pace to the downside. It’s been clear for some time junk bonds are indicating a recession looming.
Breadth barely went positive Friday and is clinging to a buy signal, we’ll see if that holds up. One notable sign (see below) was a the rise in put/call. Not alarming, but certainly would be if there are a few more days when this indicator moved higher, above 1.
The Internals
What’s it mean?
It was a pretty subdued day if you look at the internals. The VOLD (top left) barely moved above/below the zero line, but the ADD climbed. Note the rise in put/call ratio, not quite at 1 but heading in that direction. VIX closed off its highs, but remains elevated into the inflation prints to come later this week.
The Dynamite
- Economic Data:
- Monday: n/a
- Tuesday: CPI for January
- Wednesday: Retail sales, industrial production, empire state, biz inflation expectations
- Thursday: PPI, philly fed index, jobless claims, housing starts
- Friday: import/export prices
- Earnings this week:
- Monday: Palantir, Lattice Semi, Teradata
- Tuesday: Coke, Marriott, Upstart, Airbnb, Devon Energy
- Wednesday: Roblox, Trade Desk, Roku, Shopify, Twilio, Biogen
- Thursday: Datadog, Crocs, Shake Shack, DraftKings, Applied Mat
- Friday: Deere, Autonation, AMC