Futures were up sharply late last night but fell hard after Europe opened for trading. The ES futures are still hovering around the 4K area but are a bit soft at the moment, that seems to be where buyers are sellers are converging. At some point, there will be a big move in one direction or the other.
The SPX 500 and the Nasdaq have some tough resistance above, call it 4K and 13K respectively. Until those levels are breached to the upside we find the indices locked in a range, trading towards the upside.
Not much news overnight as stocks are taking a breather after last week’s news flood.
Walgreens earnings were out this morning and the company beat handily. LuluLemon and Micron will report later tonight.
The only real event we see is the end of the month and quarter, which can see some very big moves up and down. Don’t forget the window dressing (buying into the end of month) which often comes with a drop in volatility.
Breadth is now on a sell signal, though Friday saw a big turnaround from negative to positive. That is notable.
Volume trends are moderate to lackluster, following the prior week’s big expiration. We seem to be finding the dip buyers very active, this week especially. Friday was an impressive turnaround, high volume selling at the outset followed by bargain hunters stepping in to push the markets towards their highs of the day.
We still see 4K on the SPX and then 4100 as significant resistance. On the downside, 3900 clearly is good support and below there we have 3850.
What’s it mean?
Some followthrough to Friday’s rally, a solid move on the VOLD but some late day selling pushed the markets off their highs. However, VIX fell sharply, as we se the ADSPD nearly a trend up day. Ticks were on the bullish side most of the day, but outside of the open there were mostly chop again.
- Tuesday: Retail inventories, consumer confidence housing data
- Wednesday: Mortgage apps, oil inventories
- Thursday: Jobless claims, GDP estimate for Q4
- Friday: PCE, Michigan sentiment survey
Earnings this week:
- Tuesday: CONN, MKC, LULU, PLAY, MU, RH
- Wednesday: CTAS, PAYX, SMTC
- Thursday: EVGO, BB
- Friday: N/A
Fed Watch: Fed speakers are out this week. Vice Chair Michael Barr testifies in front of Congress about the SVB situation. Fed futures continue to look for massive rate cuts coming later in 2023, quite a stark difference from what the Fed has been saying.
Issues/Stocks to Watch this Week
Still unresolved, this banking crisis remains a hindrance to the markets.
MU – Micron earnings are going to be watched closely as the chip sector has made a huge leap forward.
End of month/quarter buying that often happens with some vigor.