Short Week Was Long on Surprises
Are we in the midst of an apathetic market with weakening economic data or something far worse? The jobs report was downright ugly, as it appears the sellers on Wednesday got it right from handicapping the ADP report. Perhaps we are looking at a bit of a soft patch at best, maybe very low or negative growth at worst. I can’t see the latter scenario happening unless there is a heavy global slowdown. We’ve seen/heard China trying to slow down to a soft landing from high levels of growth – from low double digits to slightly lower and arresting inflation gradually. Europe? Certainly more a thorn in the side of sentiment and psychology rather than anything significant. The market continues to take shot with the good news/bad news the region regarding Greece and other disabled nations. Sure would be nice to get this behind us once and for all.
If there is a silver lining for the bulls – it is quite rare to start of the month so weak, in fact taking a look at Rob Hanna’s data we can see the two weeks following a tough start to month is nearly pristine in predicting upside:
By Rob Hanna | June 03, 2011 | 11:30 AM |
Positive seasonality has been run over the past 2 days by strong selling. To see such a weak start to a month is rare. There have only been 5 other times since its inception where the SPY lost over 2% on the 1st day of the month and then closed lower again on the 2nd day of the month. That’s a very low sample size but over the next couple of weeks returns have been outstanding. Below I have listed all 5 instances.
(from Green Faucet)
With not many things in June other than a trickle of earnings and economic numbers we’re at a critical point with the markets. Charts are teetering on breaking down but there are some names that continue to perform well. Look at CMG, NFLX, HLF just to name a few. Transports look to be good and some tech names may be poised to break out. Energy names are starting to look interesting, financials finally showed something this week other than a flat line. Playing it light for now is the best course of action. There is a Fed meeting later in the month which I suspect will address the softness in the economy and the next course of action following QE2. The chart below of the SPX shows the difficult week and precarious position of the markets right now.